So what can we look forward to in the bustling and lucrative summer movie season this year? Quite a bit, it seems. Things will start off with a bang on May 7, when Robert Downey Jr., returns to the screen with Iron Man 2 and the role that solidified his remarkable career comeback. The other event blockbuster of the year is one that animation fans have been clamoring for over the past 11 years: Toy Story 3. How far can these mega-sequels go and what other films will be able to stand out among the crowd? Below are my forecasts for the summer’s biggest hits:
Toy Story 3 
Starring: Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, Joan Cusack, John Ratzenberger, Wallace Shawn
Release Date: June 18
It’s been 11 years since the previous entry in the Toy Story franchise and, as such, Pixar’s last sequel. Arguably the most demand animation sequel of all-time, Pixar finally made it official over three years ago that the long-awaited third installment was in the works. The entire original cast returns (sans the late Jim Varney) as well as a slew of new voice stars such as Whoopi Goldberg, Timothy Dalton, and Michael Keaton. Before the Shrek franchise even existed, the Toy Story films revolutionized an entire genre and established what has become the most consistently successful studio in the business: Pixar.
There are two key factors here: the first being that the second film was met with reception equal to, if not greater than, the first film. Incoming anticipation would already be high based off that fact alone. The second factor is that with an 11-year time span and Pixar’s growth in popularity, this franchise is now primed and ready to appeal to a large audience of youngsters that weren’t even born when the second film came out. Coupled with Pixar’s uncanny ability to appeal to parents (unlike most cookie-cutter kids’ flicks) and the fact that nostalgia will certainly drive a lot of the college and 20-something crowd, we could be in store for a run that only one animated film has seen in modern times: Shrek 2. That film is currently the highest-grossing animation of all-time with $441 million and shares the rank of being the most attended film of the last decade alongside The Dark Knight and Avatar. Seeing as that Toy Story 3 carries a similar amount of hype, will benefit from six years of inflation, and will be boosted by 3D prices, this is the front-runner to win not just the summer but the box office crown for all of 2010. An opening weekend record for an animated film should be in store here and thanks to those 3D costs, it’s not impossible that we could see this break the *actual* opening weekend record, but it’s too far out to say for sure just yet. Legs will definitely be the name of the game for the toys though and $500 million looks to be the benchmark for this film’s total. If word of mouth reflects that of early screenings, then surpassing The Dark Knight’s $533 million could be very possible and, best case scenario, even Titanic’s numbers ($601 million) – now #2 all-time – cannot be ruled out.
Early predictions: $140+ million opening weekend and a $525+ million domestic gross.
Iron Man 2
Starring: Robert Downey, Jr., Don Cheadle, Gwyneth Paltrow, Scarlett Johansson, Mickey Rourke
Release Date: May 7
The first film debuted two summers ago to an amazing response across audiences and elevated Downey into an entirely new level of stardom. Since charming audiences with his portrayal of Tony Stark, Downey has built himself a string of wildly successful films (Tropic Thunder, Sherlock Holmes) and this has elevated his star power across all genders and ages to that comparable only to Johnny Depp and his turn as the iconic Captain Jack Sparrow in the Pirates franchise.
Iron Man 2, like its predecessor, opens the summer season, and with the massive amount of anticipation behind it will be aiming to take down the opening weekend record of $158.4 million set by The Dark Knight in 2008, just two months after the first Stark film. First sequels tend to perform better than their predecessors in the genre (even in cases where reception wasn’t as strong) so while word of mouth will decide where it ultimately winds up, $400 million seems to be almost a sure thing at this point.
Final predictions: $160-170 million opening weekend and a $425-435 million domestic gross.
Shrek Forever After
Starring: Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz, Eddie Murphy, Antonio Banderas
Release: May 21
The last Shrek film was met with lukewarm reactions among older crowds, but kids still love this franchise and this latest entry is being billed (and confirmed) as the final installment of the series. It is also the first foray in 3D for the ogre so there will definitely be some inflation helping it out in the end, but the film is likely to lose some of its audience from the last film, especially considering that, for the first time, it will not be the biggest animated event film of the year. If word of mouth is even worse this time then a sub-$300 million gross is very possible, but with the “finale factor” and 3D prices we should look for a gross relatively similar to that of the last film (between $320 million and $340 million).
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
Starring: Kristen Stewart, Edward Pattinson, Taylor Lautner, Dakota Fanning, Bryce Dallas Howard
Release: June 30
New Moon broke the opening day record with over $72 million last November but proved, unsurprisingly, to be one of the most front-loaded films of all-time, as the film finished just under $300 million. The surge in attendance from the first film was likely spurred by curiosity from the uninitiated as well as a lack of competition in the market. That should be a very different story this year. While the hardcore fan base should get this to similar numbers during its first few days, an even harsher drop-off in legs to $265-285 million will be likely.
Inception
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Ken Watanabe, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Marion Cotillard, Ellen Page
Release: July 16
Currently the most secretive project in Hollywood, director Chris Nolan is hot off the heels of his success with The Dark Knight. Bringing to life what he refers to as a grand scale heist film centered on the contemporary sci-fi genre, Inception is an original story and concept that he developed when he was a teenager. With a large budget combining the storytelling and direction that Nolan has become renowned for in a fairly short amount of time, his newest and most ambitious film to date is also one of the most anticipated of the year. Not being based off an existing franchise and having a somewhat-obscure plot are about the only disadvantages (in terms of gross) for the film, but audiences have proven recently with films like District 9, Star Trek, and Avatar that they are more than willing to drop cash on a quality sci-fi film. The range for this is probably the widest of any major release this year but it has incredible potential. I’m staying conservative and predicting $210 million to $230 million, but if word of mouth is anything like Nolan’s previous work, then it could go even further.
Knight & Day
Starring: Tom Cruise, Cameron Diaz, Peter Sarsgaard, Maggie Grace, Paul Dano
Release: June 25
Could Cruise be back in his element here? Early indications seem to indicate as much. The trailers have packed a punch and are reaching action and rom-com fans alike thanks to the dynamic casting of Cruise and Diaz. Director James Mangold is also no stranger to well-received films, coming off of Walk the Line and 3:10 To Yuma. Having a few solid hits under his belt as well as a head-turning cameo in Tropic Thunder, enough time may have passed for Cruise to become a considerable blockbuster draw again. Aiming for a similar audience as Mr. and Mrs. Smith, it’s looking very possible for Knight & Day to become one of the breakout hits of the summer and it should challenge for $200 million.
Rounding out my top 12 predictions for the summer:
The Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (May 28) – $130-150 million – Video game adaptations have historically done moderate business (at best), but the Memorial Day release and Disney/Bruckheimer name should help this one get to Tomb Raider-like numbers as long as word of mouth is halfway decent.
Sex and the City 2 (May 27) – $135 million – The first film opened strong thanks to anticipation among the female fan base, but after wrapping up a lot of story lines, this sequel could act more like an episodic addition. Given that the fan base hasn’t likely increased anymore, it should perform similar numbers as the first film.
The A-Team (June 11) – $125-145 million – Bradley Cooper, fresh off The Hangover, and Liam Neeson headline this adaptation of the popular ’80s TV series. With a relative lack of action films in early June and a mixture of comedy and action being emphasized in the marketing, this should find a sizable audience with its star power and summer-friendly genre.
Grown Ups (June 25) – $115-135 million – Adam Sandler and Kevin James headline this ensemble cast of popular SNL and 1990s comedians in a coming-of-age film for, as the title implies, grown-ups. Sandler’s recent films have been declining in attendance, but the tone of the trailers indicate this should gravitate more toward the crowd that made Click popular back in 2006.
The Other Guys (August 6) – $110-130 million – Will Farrell and Mark Wahlberg team up for this action-comedy that will try to take advantage of the empty market in August. Farrell previously saw great success with this release window with Talladega Nights and, to a lesser degree, Step Brothers. It’s still early, but the first teaser trailer shows some promise.
Dinner for Schmucks (July 23) – $100-120 million – Last but certainly not least, director Jay Roach (Austin Powers and Meet the Parents franchises) brings this remake of a French comedy into the summer fray. The film has unmistakable star power reuniting Steve Carell and Paul Rudd as the leads while the trailer features Zach Galifianakis in a small supporting role as well (no doubt hoping to win over some of The Hangover crowd). This is another film that could go either way (similar to Funny People disappointing most expectations last year), but with the clear-cut comedic tone, it should be able to appeal to audiences more directly for a solid opening weekend at least. The film will live or die on word of mouth; however, it’s hard to bet against a director and cast with such a great incoming resume.
* = all box office figures as reported by BoxOfficeMojo.com
