On Sunday, March 7, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will hand out the 82^nd annual Academy Awards. This year, the biggest news is the expansion of the Best Picture category from the traditional five nominees to ten. While the reasons vary as to why the Academy chose to do this, the two biggest are also the most obvious.

First: ratings have been on a general decline in recent years. Compared to the year 2000 ceremony (when American Beauty won Best Picture for 1999’s calendar year), last year’s show was down nearly 21 percent in viewers despite being an “increase” from the previous year (2008, at a record-low 31.8 million viewers, was a 32 percent decline from 2000). That increase, however, can partially be attributed to the fact that audiences were eager to see Heath Ledger presented, posthumously, with the Best Supporting Actor award for his portrayal of The Joker in The Dark Knight.

Not-so-coincidentally, the 37 million rating in 2009 was still the third-lowest in over 20 years. Many speculate that this number would have gone significantly higher had The Dark Knight been in the running for Best Picture, but it was surprisingly snubbed despite becoming one of the most critically and commercially successful films of all time. This notion is likely true given that recent years in which a major blockbuster was nominated for Best Picture the ratings shot up dramatically from the prior year. For example, 1998 (the year Titanic won) not only posted a 40 percent increase from 1997 but also saw the largest audience in modern Oscar history with over 57 million viewers. 2004 saw a similar increase of 32 percent when The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King was nominated for and swept all 11 Oscars, including Best Picture and Best Director.

Avatar

And thus, the AMPAS was left with a choice: start recognizing more mainstream-friendly films or risk bleeding more audience members with each passing year. Money makes the world go ’round (especially Hollywood) so they chose the former. Playing even more to the Academy’s favor is that Avatar has broken numerous box office records and is nominated in nine categories this year. But it’s a true “David vs. Goliath” as The Hurt Locker is nominated for just as many, along with Inglourious Basterds and its eight nods right behind them both. Up in the Air grabbed a solid six nominations while the sci-fi sensations Star Trek and District 9 both grabbed four each.

There might not be a ton of surprises this year, but among the smaller, second-tier categories, Avatar is widely expected to sweep the technical awards. While it’s a lock for Best Visual Effects, watch out for District 9 (especially on its incredibly low budget) or possibly even Star Trek to swipe away one of the other ones.

Below are the nominees as well as a breakdown and forecast of what to expect in the key categories for this year’s awards:

Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
The Messenger (Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman)
A Serious Man (Joel & Ethan Coen)
Up (Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy)

Analysis: This category is one that can almost go either way. Boal won the top honor with the Writers Guild but Tarantino’s Basterds won the top honor at the Critics’ Choice Awards.  The Hurt Locker is the slight favorite to win since the Writers Guild of America is an Academy member and critics are not, but it’s conceivable that they might vote to award Tarantino instead if they have other, bigger plans that night for THL.

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9 (Neill Blomkamp and Terri Hatchell)
An Education (Nick Hornby)
In the Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche)
Precious (Geoffrey Fletcher)
Up in the Air (Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner)

Analysis: After winning at the WGA, the Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes, Reitman’s Up in the Air is the runaway favorite. The film has been overshadowed by the “big three,” so it’s unlikely to win in the big categories, making this even more of a virtual lock.

Mo’Nique in Precious

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz in Nine
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
Mo’Nique in Precious

Analysis: Mo’Nique is running away with this one. The buzz on her performance hasn’t really gone away over the last five months even when the film’s itself has. Farmiga and Kendrick were once considered contenders, but both being nominated will essentially cannibalize each other’s already-slim chances to win.

Christoph Waltz as Colonel Hans Landa in Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon in Invictus
Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Analysis: Waltz has been cleaning up at the various award shows and film circles, and deservedly so. His portrayal of Colonel Hans Landa in Basterds ranks among the great villainous portrayals of the past decade. Tucci was a strong contender coming into the year but Bones was widely panned by critics, killing most of its chances to win any awards. If the Academy were going to make this the “shock win” of the year, it could be Plummer, as they have shown a tendency to favor the older underdog in the past. Waltz has this on virtual lockdown, though.

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Carey Mulligan in An Education
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

Analysis: This is the epitome of a two-horse, blockbuster race. Streep is on an incredibly successful streak both at the box office and with awards these past few years, but after having received so much recognition from The Devil Wears Prada and more notably last year’s Doubt, Sandra Bullock is my pick to win her first Oscar after a hugely successful year.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
George Clooney in Up in the Air
Colin Firth in A Single Man
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

Analysis: Bridges has quietly built up a solid showing at the awards circuit this year despite Crazy Heart itself not seeing quite the same recognition. Clooney is also a heavy hitter in this category having never won for Best Actor thus far in his career, and if Up in the Air is somehow looked over for its writing, the Academy could potentially pull off a major upset here. The odds are closer than Bridges’ win makes it look, but he will likely take this one home.

Best Director
Avatar (James Cameron)
The Hurt Locker (Kathryn Bigelow)
Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
Precious (Lee Daniels)
Up in the Air (Jason Reitman)

Analysis: A true clash of the titans. The fact that Bigelow and Cameron used to be married makes this even more dramatic and one of the most personal battles this category has ever seen. All things considered, Cameron has an advantage with this category, as it was his singular vision that brought Avatar to the screen. The work he did with Peter Jackson’s WETA studio to bring the world of Pandora to life through innovative camera designs is enough to consider him the favorite.  That said, only one other female director has ever been nominated (Sofia Coppola for 2003’s “Lost In Translation”), and Bigelow delivered a modern war film that, while not a hit at the box office, has earned unanimous praise from film circles and is seeing great success in the home video market thanks to slow-building word-of-mouth. It would be historic to award Bigelow despite Cameron’s clout and the Academy would love that kind of attention.  They could possibly split the top awards, but I’m giving Bigelow the edge here.

Best Picture
Avatar (James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers)
The Blind Side (Nominees to be determined)
District 9 (Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers)
An Education (Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers)
The Hurt Locker (Nominees to be determined)
Inglourious Basterds (Lawrence Bender, Producer)
Precious (Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, and Gary Magness, Producers)
A Serious Man (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers)
Up (Jonas Rivera, Producer)
Up in the Air (Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers)

Analysis: Last but certainly not least, this is the most interesting category that got even more interesting with the added padding of five more nominees this year. Most of the nominees were expected but The Blind Side was the true shocker when nominations were announced. Undoubtedly trying to grab the audience that has made the film such a success (the same audience that represents most Americans becoming disillusioned with the Oscars), The Blind Side is just there for looks and has zero chance of winning. Snubbed in its favor were more critically-acclaimed films like (500) Days of Summer as well as the hugely popular Star Trek, which struck a major chord with the public while still earning some of the best reviews of any film this year. The Academy made it known early on that this year is being set up to shake up.

First up is Avatar. There is something to be said for stature, and being the highest-grossing film of all time has already won Cameron this award once before. Can he do it again? It hasn’t had a great showing with most of the guilds, but it did win the prize at the Golden Globes. Those are voted on by a group (the Hollywood Foreign Press) independent of the Academy though, so it’s not necessarily going to help it. The film had a strong chance of pulling this out with the Academy feeling the need to make up for last year, but the sneak-surprise nomination of fellow sci-fi flick “District 9” will hold back Avatar’s votes, in my opinion.

Second is The Hurt Locker. It has quietly become the favorite to win but not by too much. Again, the voting system of the Academy makes this by far the hardest year to predict this category with the expanded nominees. This film has taken home the most awards with the guilds though. Compare its $15 million domestic box office to Avatar’s $700 million+ though, and the Academy may kick the underdog when it’s down just to appease its viewers.

Lastly is Inglourious Basterds. Tarantino has been here once before and in any other year but 1994 and its incredible lineup, Pulp Fiction would have probably won the award. The stars need to align, but awarding Basterds would strike the perfect balance for the Academy by having a winner that was unanimously praised by critics and film circles based on the merits of the film itself while still being a big hit at the box office. Voters could potentially forego Hurt Locker if it wins for writing and Bigelow takes home the Directing award, making Basterds the ultimate potential upset, and the Academy loves to pull one of those out every now and then.

The Hurt Locker

In the end, this is The Hurt Locker’s to lose, but it’s almost a coin flip once you factor in the unknown variables, because this is probably going to be a year where they try to award a large variety of films without many taking home more than two or three trophies. Against the odds, I’m all but ruling out Avatar and favoring Hurt Locker at 60 percent, with Basterds at 40 percent as the ultimate upset.